I’ve been watching what’s happening in the U.S. government with growing dismay. Trump and Musk seem determined to destroy the government’s ability to perform certain functions, some of which are very important to the United States, and some of which are very important to the world. And it turns out that many of the safeguards against this destruction are controlled by the executive branch, which is to say, by Trump.
The feckless cruelty is not unexpected — it’s the standard sociopath playbook, and I was surprised we didn’t see more of it during Trump’s first term — but somehow that hasn’t made it any less shocking. However, I’m surprised and confused by Trump’s tolerance of Elon Musk. The Trump we know craves being the center of attention. Musk’s grandstanding has got to bother him. So why hasn’t he shut down Musk like he would anyone else?
In this late night hour I find myself leaning toward a dark hypothesis. I have no proof, but if Trump is still supporting Musk, it’s got to be because he’s getting something in return. It can’t be Musk’s $288 million donation to the election campaigns because the election is over. Trump may in some sense “owe” Musk for his election victory, but Trump is not known for paying his debts, and he’s never been hesitant about discarding people he no longer needs. It’s got to be something that’s still going on.
We may never figure it out, but my best guess is that somehow, somewhere, money is flowing from Elon Musk to Donald Trump. After all, Musk spent billions to buy Twitter. I’m sure he can afford, say, $1 million a day to buy the President.
If I’m right, I don’t see any way to put a stop to it. Trump is solidifying his control over the FBI and Justice Department in this term, so I don’t see either of them beginning an investigation, let alone indicting Musk. Nor do I think removal under the 25th Amendment is a possibility, not with the sycophants Trump has brought on board.
They way I see it, there are only a few ways out of this nightmare, and most are either unlikely or unhelpful:
- Trump leaves office at the end of his term, in which case we have a lot more of this bullshit ahead of us.
- Trump is impeached and removed. That would almost certainly require one or both of:
- Trump screws things up so bad that Republican legislators face pressure from constituents to turn against Trump.
- Republicans lose control of Congress, especially the Senate, where a 2/3 vote is needed for conviction.
- Trump dies. The actuarial tables give a man of Trump’s age living in the U.S. about a 6% chance of dying in each of the next four years, or about 1 in 4 odds of dying in office.
- Musk moves on to something else. I don’t see this happening unless
- Musk gets everything he wants, or
- Musk is soundly thwarted and loses interest.
- Musk is incapacitated, e.g. through death, arrest by one of the states or in some other country, or severe financial losses.
- Somebody else pays Trump even more money to go away.
- Sweet Meteor of Death. (Object 2024 YR4 is at 3 on the Torino risk scale, baby!)
Until one of those things happens, this is the new normal.
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