As I mentioned in a previous post, I’m looking at some of the election forecast data to try to figure out how things are going for Biden (and by extension Trump) in the battleground states.
The ABC News 538 site has only slightly reduced its probability of a Biden victory from 49% to 48% (with Trump holding at 51%), which is essentially no change.[1]The missing 1% is the chance of a tie. The Silver Bulletin, which has been predicting roughly 2-to-1 odds of a loss for Biden, is now showing more like 3-to-1 odds against Biden, from 29.0% to 25.8% (Trump’s 70.6% to 73.9%).[2]The missing 0.3% is the chance of a tie.
The trendline here is not good:
(Note that polls generally spend a few days in the field before returning results, so the results immediately after an event on the timeline are from polling that mostly took place before the event. The response to events lags by a few days.)
Basically, Trump has been gaining slowly for most of the last 30 days. The battleground states are still the battleground states, but Biden’s chances have declined slightly:
The campaign against Trump seems to be slipping. I have no idea what, if anything, the Democrats can do about it. I just wish they’d figure something out, otherwise the next five years are really going to suck.
Footnotes
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