U.S. v. Julian Assange, A Prediction

Every once in a while, I get the urge to make predictions. That’s because I believe that if someone claims to understand something, they should be able to successfully predict future developments. My track record, therefore, demonstrates that I don’t understand anything.

(Oh, sure, I called a few easy ones, like that John Mark Karr didn’t really kill JonBenet Ramsey or that McCain would lose the presidential election. On the other hand, I was completely wrong about everything I predicted for the last season of Battlestar Galactica.)

Anyway, here’s my prediction about the future of Julian Assange:

First, the UK and Sweden have treaties and a good working relationship, and the charges against him are for real crimes (whether they are sustainable is another matter) so I think he’s going to be extradited to Sweden.

Second, I think Assange will ultimately be extradited to the United States, but it’s going to be tricky. For one thing, I hear that freedom of the press is very strong in Sweden, and I’ve also heard that Sweden won’t extradite people for what they consider to be a political crime, which is how the Wikileaks affair is likely to be seen over there.

This brings us to the main question (and my main prediction): With what crimes will the Justice Department charge Assange? I’m not a lawyer, of course, so my predictions should hardly be taken as definitive analysis, but I’ve been watching how my goverment works for a long time, and I think I can see where this is going.

Despite what some of the loud-mouthed politicians and pundits say, Assange can’t be charged with Treason. He’s not a U.S. citizen, and he’s never had a relationship to the U.S.–such as residency or military service–that would bind him to a duty of loyalty.

A more likely possibility is the Espionage Act, which makes it a crime to say things that interfere with the smooth running of the military. Amazingly, the Espionage Act has been held to apply to foreigners who commit their crimes outside the United States, even though that would seem to allow for such absurdities as prosecuting the entire adult population of Germany and Japan after World War II. This is exactly the sort of thing that would make the Swedish (or even British) courts deny extradition.

Also, the Espionage Act may run into problems with the First Amendment. It was ruled constitutional in 1919, but more recent court decisions have picked away at it, and in today’s courts it just might be ruled unconstitutional.

So, when the Department of Justice goes after Julian Assange, they’re going to want to avoid charging him with anything too exotic. They’re going to charge him with a crime for which they have successfully extradited lots of other people, they’re going to charge him with a crime which is not teetering on the edge of unconstitutionality, and they’re going to charge him with a crime for which they have a long track record of conviction.

In other words, they’re going to charge him with money laundering.

Wikileaks is a somewhat secretive organization, and to preserve that secrecy, its staff has probably had to be a little sneaky with their funding. I think the Justice Department is going to investigate how Wikileaks has been funded, and they’re going to find something that breaks the rules. The DOJ might throw in a few other charges for show, but it will be the money laundering charges that do all the hard work.

At least, that’s my prediction.