I’m reading stories that up to 24,000 people may have decided to stay on Galveston Island. There are rumors that fires have broken out. Ike’s storm surge is huge. The last time a surge this big struck Galveston, 8,000 people died. That’s about 20% of the population.
Building construction is a lot better now—lots of stilt houses—but that won’t help you survive if your entire house is underwater.
Hopefully, the death toll will stay under four figures.
Update: 2:45 CDT. It looks like Ike is coming ashore far enough east that peak of the surge is hitting over around Chambers and Jefferson counties. The tidal gauges at Galveston didn’t get up over 11 feet, which I think is not enough to overtop the sea wall, and they’re starting to come down. These people will probably live through the night.
Lucky Galveston.
Update: 3:15 CDT. Took another look at the tidal gauges. I think a couple of them have failed. Galveston Bay entrance, definitely, and the data from Pier 21 looks weird. Maybe they’re not out of the woods yet. The trailing eyewall it hitting Galveston.
Update: 8am CDT. Looking good. The storm did not live up to predictions, for reasons not immediately clear. No good damage reports yet.
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