Israel to Nuke Iran?

John Ruberry links to a Sunday Times report that Israel is planning a nuclear strike on Iran.

I’m not sure what to make of this story. Israel planning to nuke Iran just is the inevitable consequence of Iran’s threatening to develop nuclear weapons. Iranian leaders have been calling for Israel’s destruction for years. Now that they are acquiring the means to do so, Israel is making plans to nuke them first.

Iran wanted to be a nuclear power. Well, that’s how it works. Now you have enemies that plan nuclear wars against you—balance of terror, mutually assured destruction and all that. Welcome to the nuclear club.

It’s hard to know how serious Israel’s plans are. A nuclear war will happen fast, and there won’t be much time for thinking about it when it starts. Therefore any country that has nuclear weapons is going to have planning staff to decide how to use them. When not fighting a nuclear war (which is, so far, thankfully, always) the staff conducts wargames and puts together canned plans for attacking enemies. I wouldn’t be surprised to discover that the U.S. also has a plan for a nuclear attack on Iran.

(Heck, I have a plan for a nuclear attack on Iran, but that’s a topic for another post…)

A conventional bombing attack against Iranian nuclear facilities would require a huge force. The United States could do it easily, but Israel would have a hard time conducting such a large air operation. Israel is therefore planning an alternative attack using small nuclear bunker-buster bombs in the one-kiloton range, according to the article.

The middle east has been a troubled region for a long time, and it may be about to get even worse. If Israel launches a conventional air strike against Iran, the Iranian leadership will have just minutes to decide whether to let it continue or to try to stop it and then hope the Israelies don’t have the willpower to use their nuclear strike plan.

If Israel does nuke Iran, the Islamic powers will go insane, which would be bad for U.S. interests in the region. This raises the possibility that the United States should destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities in a conventional attack so that the Israelies won’t do so in a nuclear attack.

Interesting times.