As I mentioned in a previous post, I'm looking at some of the election forecast data to try to figure out how things are going for Biden (and by extension Trump) in the battleground states.The ABC News 538 site has downgraded its probability of a Biden victory from 51% to 49% (with Trump going from 49% to 51%), which is essentially no change. The Silver Bulletin, which has … [Read more...] about Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-10
Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-03
No, this isn't a rumination on whether Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee. It's an attempt to display some election modeling data in a useful way.Nate Sillver's old FiveThirtyEight blog used to have a pretty nifty "snake" diagram showing the states in order by likelihood of victory for each of the two major candidates. Each state's segment had a length … [Read more...] about Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-03
Stonehenge: A Modest Proposal
As you may know, a couple of idiotic climate change activists just defaced part of the Stonehenge monument in England with some kind of orange colored substance. This has led to a number of calls for vengeful punishment. I think the performative outrage from the right is especially deranged:The reaction from archeologists and monument lovers has been less extreme, … [Read more...] about Stonehenge: A Modest Proposal
A Brief Bump Stock Explainer
I've been seeing a lot of confused commentary on the Supreme Court's decision in Garland v. Cargill, which ruled that bump stocks did not violate the National Firearms Act (NFA) provision prohibiting machineguns.[1]One thing that's important to understand is that the Supreme Court did not overturn the National Firearms Act. They did not rule that any part of it was … [Read more...] about A Brief Bump Stock Explainer
When Bullshit is Karma
As everyone knows, Donald Trump was convicted of 34 felonies. And I have to admit I'm enjoying the heck out of it. Trump is a sociopathic scumbag -- always has been -- and I enjoy watching bad things happen to him. Many of his supporters are also terrible people, and their hysterical over-reactions are one of the best parts of this.Cry harder! Ha ha ha ha … [Read more...] about When Bullshit is Karma