One of the limitations of the Model Justice 1.0 model is that every defendant has the exact same probability of being found guilty at trial. That's unrealistic, and it's unrealistic in a way that will matter: The estimation of the probability of a conviction at trial has got to be one of the most important factors in whether a prosecutor decides to offer a plea deal and whether … [Read more...] about Model Justice 1.1 – Random Guilt
A Chicago-esque Voting Moment in the ‘Burbs
Yesterday morning, for the second time, I voted from my new address in the suburbs, after many years of voting in Chicago. It's pretty much the same experience out here as it was in the city, except out here they have good parking.I only had to stand in line a minute or two before giving my name to one of the election judges, who looked me up on the computer and printed out … [Read more...] about A Chicago-esque Voting Moment in the ‘Burbs
Model Justice — Part 1
A few of days ago, defense lawyer Mark Bennett tweeted an interesting thread about how loss aversion bias could affect a criminal defendant's decision to take a plea deal:https://twitter.com/NoLongerBennett/status/1057661072579223552(If you're interested, read the whole thread.)For as long as I've been following criminal defense lawyers on the web, they've … [Read more...] about Model Justice — Part 1
It Sometimes Begins with Virginia Postrel
Reason magazine is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year, and a bunch of the staff are sharing their libertarian origin stories. I think I'll share mine.The first time I remember hearing the word "libertarian" was when I was in high school in 1980 and Ed Clark was running for President on the Libertarian ticket. I remember that he wanted to legalize all drugs, and I … [Read more...] about It Sometimes Begins with Virginia Postrel
Why I’m Posting About Jack Marshall Here
Over the last few weeks, I've been doing a series of posts responding to things that Jack Marshall writes in his Ethics Alarms blog. I'm getting a bunch of mini-rants out of my system, in the hope that it will help me end my obsession with his blog. I've been slacking off on the posts lately, so I think I'm almost done.Meanwhile, Slickwilly left this comment on an … [Read more...] about Why I’m Posting About Jack Marshall Here