As I explained in the first post of this series, I'm trying to build a computer model of certain aspects of the criminal justice system. This week, it's not going well.My goal is to build a model of how our justice system handles plea bargains, with an eye toward understanding (1) why a system built around the highly formalized decision-making mechanism of the trial doesn't … [Read more...] about Model Justice – Plea Bargaining Blues
A Carnival of Street Photography
Singer-songwriter Natalie Merchant released her first solo album, Tigerlilly, in 1995. I remember its top-ten single "Carnival" was all over the radio for months. And of course there was a music video to go with it.I was disappointed with the video. I liked Merchant's songs, but the video felt like she wasn't really trying: It's shot in black-and-white, and it just … [Read more...] about A Carnival of Street Photography
The Senate Is Not Fair To People
So, I saw this tweet, by yet another person claiming that critics of U.S. Senate apportionment rules are historically illiterate:https://twitter.com/KemberleeKaye/status/1060213813918818304I'm sick and tired of this argument, and I responded with what seems to me to be the obvious rejoinder:https://twitter.com/windypundit/status/1060219419593506816I realize this … [Read more...] about The Senate Is Not Fair To People
Model Justice 1.1 – Random Guilt
One of the limitations of the Model Justice 1.0 model is that every defendant has the exact same probability of being found guilty at trial. That's unrealistic, and it's unrealistic in a way that will matter: The estimation of the probability of a conviction at trial has got to be one of the most important factors in whether a prosecutor decides to offer a plea deal and whether … [Read more...] about Model Justice 1.1 – Random Guilt
A Chicago-esque Voting Moment in the ‘Burbs
Yesterday morning, for the second time, I voted from my new address in the suburbs, after many years of voting in Chicago. It's pretty much the same experience out here as it was in the city, except out here they have good parking.I only had to stand in line a minute or two before giving my name to one of the election judges, who looked me up on the computer and printed out … [Read more...] about A Chicago-esque Voting Moment in the ‘Burbs