I still believe in Nate Silver's argument for why Donald Trump will almost certainly not be the Republican nominee for President (basically, if he doesn't blow up his own campaign, the party establishment will do it for him), but the strength of my belief has been shaken by the Donald's surprising staying power in the polls and by the big-time professional political operatives … [Read more...] about Who Will Run With Trump?
Prognostication
Not the Norks
In response to threats apparently coming from hackers in North Korea, Sony pictures has withdrawn their movie The Interview from a Christmas release. Several major theater chains had already backed out, and Sony seems to have given in, possibly after being weakened by the earlier release of hacked proprietary data.I've already made it pretty clear in a different context … [Read more...] about Not the Norks
The Natural Disaster We’re Having
[Update: I was far too pessimistic about the heatwave. According to Wikipedia, it killed 82 people, far fewer than I was worried about. I guess I am a bit of an alarmist after all.] Over at Breitbart, Joel B. Pollack is trying to use the recent heat wave against President Obama: With much of the East Coast still struggling to recover from recent storms that cut power to … [Read more...] about The Natural Disaster We’re Having
McCain To Lose
I know nothing about election politics, but I've decided to make a prediction for the Prognistication file anyway. I'm noticing that a lot of conservative coverage of Obama's campaign is pointing out that he's just another politician, he's not divine, he has ties to Chicago politicians, or that some of his actions are politically motivated (in an election year, no … [Read more...] about McCain To Lose
John Mark Karr
Okay, I'll get in the game with my prediction: John Mark Karr didn't kill JonBenet Ramsey. (I've been right about things like this before, but didn't say anything in advance so who'd believe me, right? This time, right or wrong, I'm on record.) He allegedly says her death was an accident, which is obviously not true: The forensic evidence shows a deliberate, brutal murder. … [Read more...] about John Mark Karr