Like everybody else, I have been having thoughts about the attempt to assassinate Donald Trump. It took me a while to gather those thoughts into something like publishable form.The ShotWhen I first heard he'd been hustled off the stage by Secret Service agents, I didn't think much of it. I assumed they were just being cautious after receiving a warning or … [Read more...] about Thoughts on the Trump Assassination Attempt
Political Science
Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-10
As I mentioned in a previous post, I'm looking at some of the election forecast data to try to figure out how things are going for Biden (and by extension Trump) in the battleground states.The ABC News 538 site has downgraded its probability of a Biden victory from 51% to 49% (with Trump going from 49% to 51%), which is essentially no change. The Silver Bulletin, which has … [Read more...] about Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-10
Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-03
No, this isn't a rumination on whether Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee. It's an attempt to display some election modeling data in a useful way.Nate Sillver's old FiveThirtyEight blog used to have a pretty nifty "snake" diagram showing the states in order by likelihood of victory for each of the two major candidates. Each state's segment had a length … [Read more...] about Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-03
In Which I Consider Applying for the Trump Administration
I've been seeing some chatter about Project 2025, which is a right-wing plan for carrying out a politically conservative agenda if Donald Trump wins the presidential election this year.One of the goals of Project 2025 is to build a personnel database of potential government employees who can be brought in to implement the conservative agenda. And they have a link to an … [Read more...] about In Which I Consider Applying for the Trump Administration
Putting the Trump Indictment Into Perspective
On the one hand, indicting Donald Trump for paying hush money to Stormy Daniels seems like small change. On the other hand, I sure do enjoy when bad things happen to Donald Trump. On yet another hand, however, it bothered me that this indictment seemed like a real stretch, which lends credence to the claims by MAGA folks that it's politically-motivated. However much I despise … [Read more...] about Putting the Trump Indictment Into Perspective