Congratulations, Mr. Trump, on your victory in the Presidential election. Your campaign was everything I expected it to be -- and so much more -- and you got the outcome you so very much wanted. I found it truly stunning, in every sense of the word. My fellow Americans have spoken clearly with their votes, and I intend to give their decision all the respect it is due.When … [Read more...] about A Heartfelt Message to Donald Trump
Political Science
Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-20
As I mentioned in a previous post, I'm looking at some of the election forecast data to try to figure out how things are going for Biden (and by extension Trump) in the battleground states.The ABC News 538 site has only slightly reduced its probability of a Biden victory from 49% to 48% (with Trump holding at 51%), which is essentially no change.((The missing 1% is the … [Read more...] about Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-20
Thoughts on the Trump Assassination Attempt
Like everybody else, I have been having thoughts about the attempt to assassinate Donald Trump. It took me a while to gather those thoughts into something like publishable form.The ShotWhen I first heard he'd been hustled off the stage by Secret Service agents, I didn't think much of it. I assumed they were just being cautious after receiving a warning or … [Read more...] about Thoughts on the Trump Assassination Attempt
Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-10
As I mentioned in a previous post, I'm looking at some of the election forecast data to try to figure out how things are going for Biden (and by extension Trump) in the battleground states.The ABC News 538 site has downgraded its probability of a Biden victory from 51% to 49% (with Trump going from 49% to 51%), which is essentially no change. The Silver Bulletin, which has … [Read more...] about Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-10
Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-03
No, this isn't a rumination on whether Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee. It's an attempt to display some election modeling data in a useful way.Nate Sillver's old FiveThirtyEight blog used to have a pretty nifty "snake" diagram showing the states in order by likelihood of victory for each of the two major candidates. Each state's segment had a length … [Read more...] about Biden’s Path to Victory – 2024-07-03