A friend of mine was concerned a few days ago that the anti-gay-marriage amendment might actually pass, which would cause her some personal heartache. I told her I thought it was just a stunt, and not worth worrying about.
Other people seem to think so too. For example, the D.C. Examiner supports a ban on same-sex marriage, but thinks trying to pass an amendment is a waste of time, saying “expending any effort on behalf of the proposal now is literally a fool’s errand”.
An ABC News poll indicates that even though most Americans oppose same-sex marriage, they also oppose a constitutional amendment to ban it. From what I’ve seen, a lot of folks on the right don’t want same-sex marriage, but they also don’t want the federal government defining marriage.
As I was writing this, another group of people spoke up: The United States Senate has rejected the amendment, giving it only 49 of the 60 votes needed to move to the next stage of voting.
I’m no expert at politics, but I think part of the reason the amendment is unlikely to pass is that a lot of people on the right regard it as a cynical attempt to earn their support. One of the reasons Bush’s popularity is so low these days is that he has betrayed a lot of his supporters. He hasn’t trimmed the size of government or launched a school vouchers program or reduced taxes or made progress on any of the other conservative issues. He’s not getting a lot of cooperation these days.
Some folks at Reason magazine agree with this and add another reason the amendment is probably doomed: Marriage is traditionally defined by the states. In states where a large group of people are upset about same-sex marriage they have been able to get it banned, at which point they lose interest in the issue.
I’m not optimistic for the prospects of widespread same-sex marriage in this country, but I don’t think a total constitutional ban is ever going to happen.
Not to mention that the state legislatures which would have to ratify any amendment that actually passed Congress are rather jealous of their own powers, and hesitant to cede authority to Washington when they actually have a choice about it.
Yeah, that’s a good point. An amendment has a long, long way to go before it becomes part of the constitution.